The draw at 3.86 is the one price nobody has touched

The best draw price is 3.86 against a median of 3.67, a little over five per cent above the consensus on a result the market rates at roughly 27 per cent. At 3.86 the implied probability is 25.9 per cent. Over the last 24 hours the home side has shortened from 2.31 to 2.29 and the away price has sat still at 3.18, while the draw has not moved at all. Nobody seems interested in it, which is usually the moment to look twice.

The public story pulls in two directions. Newcastle were beaten 4-1 at Coventry last weekend, the sort of result that makes punters wary of a home favourite. Aston Villa, meanwhile, put six past Fenerbahce in midweek, and a 6-0 headline tends to drag money towards the visitors. Yet the market has barely budged on either side, which suggests the books do not believe either narrative strongly. Neither do I. Newcastle are 11th on eight points and Villa 16th on five; this is two sides in the soft middle of the table looking for a run, not a fixture separated by class. Villa's last league outing was a 2-2 draw with Brentford, and they arrive at St James' Park three days after a European night.

The favourite at 2.29 implies about 44 per cent, which feels generous for a team coming off a three-goal defeat. The away price asks you to trust one big European scoreline over six games of ordinary league form. The draw asks only that two average sides cancel each other out, and it is the one outcome where the best price clearly beats the consensus.

Verdict: the draw at 3.86.