Battered on Monday, rested by Saturday: the Magpies' bounce-back story

The last time Villa came to St James' Park, in January, they walked out 2-0 winners, and that's the story most people will carry into this one. It's a fair story. Villa are flying in Europe after putting six past Fenerbahce on Wednesday night, and they drew 2-2 with Brentford before that.

But the more recent chapter belongs to Newcastle, and it's an ugly one. They shipped four at Coventry on Monday, losing 1-4, and the previews have them sliding out of the top half after two defeats in three. Sides that get embarrassed like that tend to come out swinging at home the next time, and Newcastle get a full five days to stew on it.

That's the bit I keep coming back to. Villa played Wednesday and travel north for a Saturday evening kick-off, 3:30am Sunday for us in AEDT, with three days between games. Newcastle have had the week. A wounded home side with fresher legs against a team coming off a big European night is a script I've seen play out plenty of times.

The price

Newcastle are 2.23 at the median and 2.28 at the best price, shortening a touch from 2.31 over the last day. Villa sit at 3.18, unchanged. The market already leans Newcastle, so the story and the price agree here, which doesn't happen every week. At 2.28 there's no big edge, but there's no reason to take shorter either.

Verdict

Newcastle at 2.28, backing the home side to answer the Coventry hiding with fresher legs.