Manchester Utd vs AS Roma prediction: 2.94 is the market paying for the badge

At a median of 2.32, the market gives Manchester United roughly a 43% chance of beating Roma at Old Trafford, and Roma about 37% at 2.71. The best price on the visitors is 2.94, more than 8% above the median, and nothing has moved in 24 hours. That is a strange shape for a fixture between a side sitting 16th in the Premier League on seven points and one sitting third in Serie A on 21.

The public story is that United's home European night is different. There is something to it: their one Champions League home game finished 4-0. But that is one result against a run that tells the other story. United's last five in all competitions read 0-3 at home to Bournemouth, 1-4 at Como, 1-1 at Leeds, 0-2 at Atlético and 1-1 against Tottenham. The Bournemouth defeat left them with the club's worst start in more than 40 years and their manager under open scrutiny. Roma, meanwhile, have lost once in five: 4-2 against Cagliari, 3-3 in Naples, 4-0 against Slovan Bratislava, 2-0 against Genoa, and a 3-4 defeat to Real Madrid that was hardly a collapse. They have scored in every one of those five, including three goals in Naples. The price on United looks like it was set by the name on the stadium rather than the last month of football. United do play Chelsea before this, and a result there would shorten them further, but one result would not erase a month of evidence.

I am sceptical of favourites that are favourites mainly by reputation, and this is one. A 37% implied chance for the in-form side, offered at 2.94 by the best book, is the wrong side of the line for anyone pricing on evidence.

Verdict: AS Roma to win at 2.94.