3.63 on the draw between two sides who have forgotten how to win

The draw is the price that stands out. The median sits at 3.46 and the best available is 3.63, almost 5% above it, which puts the stalemate at roughly 27.5% implied against a market consensus nearer 29%. Bournemouth are the favourite at a median 2.10, but they have drifted from 2.13 to 2.16 at the top of the market over the last day while the draw and Sunderland both came in slightly. The market is not confident in the home side, and it is right not to be.

The case for Bournemouth rests on venue and nothing much else. They sit 18th on three points and are one of three Premier League sides still without a league win, with three draws and three defeats. Sunderland are a place above them on four points and have lost their last three league games, including a 2-0 home defeat by Brighton last weekend. When two sides short of confidence meet, the cautious result tends to be undervalued, because the public prices in the team it thinks is "due" rather than the one actually winning. The recent meetings fit the pattern: the last time these two met at the Vitality it finished 1-1, and the all-time Premier League record is evenly split, two wins each and two draws.

None of this makes the draw likely, only underpriced. At 3.63 the draw needs to land a little more than one time in four to pay its way, and between a side that cannot win and a side that cannot stop losing, that looks a fair ask. The favourite has drifted for a reason the table explains.

Verdict: the draw at 3.63 is the side of this market I would rather be on.