Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction: Philly games land near 217

3 things that decide this one

1. Philadelphia plays low-scoring games. The Sixers are 3-1, and their four regular-season games finished with combined totals of 206, 220, 243 and 199. That averages 217, more than 20 points under this number. Only the 127-116 win over Milwaukee went past it.

1. The Sixers' defense has been steady. They have allowed 100, 106, 116 and 106 points, an average of 107. Even the loss to Detroit was a defensive game: they gave up 106 and scored only 93. Indiana scores more (121.3 a game across a 2-1 start), and that is the one real argument for the over.

1. Indiana's games sit right on the line, not over it. The Pacers' three games produced 243, 226 and 245, an average of 238. So the home side's own games say "coin flip" at 237.5, while the visitors' games say "well under". When one team's profile is neutral and the other leans hard one way, I go with the lean.

The number

The main total is 237.5, with the over at 1.87 and the under at 1.99 at the best price (about -101 in American odds). This market is new, so there is no 24-hour move to read yet. Books are hanging totals from 234.5 to 240.5, so the market is pricing this closer to an Indiana game than a Philadelphia game. Philadelphia's results so far point lower.

Lean

I lean under 237.5 at 1.99.