Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction: 38% vs a 36% run-line price

Down 0-2 in the series, Tampa Bay is still the moneyline favorite at a 1.83 median for Game 3 at home, and I think that home bump is a little too generous. Milwaukee won both games at home, the second 5-4 after trailing 4-0.

By the numbers

Last five (runs for–against)

• Rays: L 4-5 at MIL, L Game 1 at MIL, W 7-3 vs CLE, W 3-1 at CLE, W 7-3 at CLE
• Brewers: W 5-4 vs TB, W Game 1 vs TB, W 6-4 at LAD, W 6-2 at LAD, W 7-4 vs LAD

Of the four Brewers wins above with a score listed, three came by two runs or more.

My estimate vs the market

Run differential is the cleanest number I can show: Milwaukee was +1.32 runs per game, Tampa Bay +0.53, and the Rays won about eight more games than their run differential suggested. Using the rough rule that ten runs is worth one win, that gap puts Milwaukee near 57% on a neutral field; I take about four points off for Tampa's home park and land at 53–54%. Roughly seven in ten MLB wins come by two runs or more (my working assumption), so Milwaukee winning by 2+ comes out near 38%. The run line at 2.80 implies 35.7%. That is a small edge, about two to three points, not a big one.

I am not touching the moneyline at 2.05; the gap there is similar but the price sits below the range I play for road dogs.

Verdict: Brewers -1.5 at 2.80 is the side where my numbers and the price disagree most.