Why the home price is the one to take tonight

The best home price has sat at 2.23 for a day, the draw is 4.13 and PSG are 3.08. The median for City is 2.15, so the top price is about 4% better than the middle of the market, which is the kind of gap worth noting on a night when most Champions League prices have been shortening.

What the price says: at 2.23 the market gives City a touch under 45% here, and PSG roughly a third. For a home side that the books usually install nearer 1.80 against most visitors, that is a respectful line for the visitors rather than a knock on City. The handicap market tells the same story, with City -0.5 at 2.18 and the +0.5 on PSG at 1.44.

Where I land: I would rather take the home side at better than evens than chase PSG at 3.08 with no drift to show for it. The draw at 4.13 is fairly priced, not generous. The totals market has over 2.5 at 1.46, so the books expect goals, which usually favours the side kicking off at home.

Verdict: Manchester City to win at 2.23. A single-goal margin would not surprise me.