51% priced, about 56% by the series so far: the under 6.5

The under 6.5 at 1.96 implies 51%, and the runs in this ALCS point a few points higher than that.

By the numbers

Implied probability is just 1 ÷ price, so the board sees this total as a coin flip. Cleveland leads the series 2-1 going into Game 4 at home.

Recent results (total runs)

• 10-15: Cleveland 3, Tampa Bay 2 (5, under)
• 10-14: Tampa Bay 3, Cleveland 1 (4, under)
• 10-13: Cleveland 7, Tampa Bay 3 (10, over)
• 10-11: Cleveland 2, Chicago White Sox 0 (2, under)
• 10-09: Cleveland 9, Chicago White Sox 5 (14, over)

My estimate vs the market

Across the three ALCS games, Tampa Bay has scored 2, 3 and 3. Cleveland has scored 7, 1 and 3. Two of the three games finished at five runs or fewer, and the only over needed a seven-run outburst from one side. Over Cleveland's last five, three went under 6.5. Both lineups agree on the same thing lately: the last two games produced nine runs combined. Weighting the two most recent games a bit more, I land near 56% for the under. That is a five-point gap over the 51% the price implies, small but real for a total that the books split almost exactly down the middle.

Verdict

Under 6.5 at 1.96 is the side where my numbers beat the market, by about five percentage points.