2.86 is the market quietly disagreeing with the Brentford story

A median of 2.42 on the home side makes Brentford roughly a 41% shot and Liverpool, at a median of 2.76, about 36%, with the draw at 3.71 taking the rest. The best price on Liverpool is 2.86 at 1xBet, nearly 4% above the median, and the interesting part is the direction of travel: the best Liverpool price was 2.94 a day ago and has shortened, while Brentford have not moved at all from 2.51. Nothing has shifted towards the home side in 24 hours. The only money that has shown up has been on the visitors.

The public case for Brentford is easy to make and it is everywhere this week. They are one of three unbeaten sides left in the league, two wins and four draws, and Liverpool's league attack has been poor on the underlying numbers, with one preview counting just nine big chances from their first six matches, the fewest in the division. Add the 3-0 home defeat to Manchester City last weekend and the narrative writes itself. But four draws in six is not the record of a side that should be favourite against anyone of quality, and a 2-2 at Aston Villa was the most recent of them. Liverpool, meanwhile, scored six away at LASK in midweek. The market has priced the story, and then, judging by the move, partly un-priced it.

I would rather be on the side the market is slowly coming round to than the side the previews are selling. At 2.86 Liverpool are priced as an underdog against a team whose unbeaten run is built mostly on draws, and that looks the wrong way round. Liverpool at 2.86 is the value side of this fixture.