Liverpool vs Brighton prediction: Brighton won in March, Anfield wants it back

The last time these two met in the league, Brighton won 2-1 at the Amex back in March, and it stung, because it dented Liverpool's push for the top four. Brighton have come into this one looking even sharper than they did then: 2-0 at Sunderland, 4-0 over Kauno Zalgiris in the Conference League, then a 5-0 hiding of Crystal Palace last weekend. Three wins, eleven goals scored, none conceded.

Liverpool's story is messier, and that's where it gets interesting. They lost 0-3 at home to Manchester City on the 11th, and since then the goals have flowed at both ends: 6-3 at LASK, 2-1 at Brentford, 4-3 over Villarreal on Tuesday night. They're leaking goals, but they keep finding more at the other end, and they've won all three since the City loss.

The other bit of the story is the calendar. Brighton are away in the Czech Republic against Jablonec on Thursday night, so they get a shorter turnaround than Liverpool, who played on Tuesday. That clean-sheet run was built against Sunderland, Kauno and a Palace side fresh off a midweek defeat in Lyon. Anfield on a Sunday is a different exam.

The price

The median has Liverpool at 2.15 and the best on offer is 2.19, with Brighton out at 3.25 and the draw around 3.75. None of it has moved in a day. For a Liverpool side that has scored twelve in its last three games, 2.19 at Anfield reads more like a coin flip than a home favourite, and I reckon the market has paid a bit too much attention to that 5-0.

Verdict

It kicks off at 1am AEDT Monday, so it's a late one for us. Liverpool to win at 2.19, back at home and out to square the ledger from March.