46% vs a 42% price: a 3-0 series still isn't fully priced in

By the numbers

Implied probability is just 1 ÷ price, so 2.38 means the market gives Milwaukee about a 42% chance.

This series

• Brewers: W 2-1 and W 7-4 at home, then W 6-2 at LA. 15 runs scored and 7 allowed.
• Dodgers: L 1-2, L 4-7, L 2-6. 7 runs scored in three games.

Milwaukee leads the series 3-0 and has outscored Los Angeles 15-7. The Brewers have won both a one-run game and two comfortable ones, so this isn't one lucky bounce.

My estimate vs the market

Start from a coin flip with home field: roughly 54% for the Dodgers. Then adjust for what we've actually seen. Over three games the Dodgers have averaged 2.3 runs, against a regular season in which they were tied for seventh in MLB in home runs while Milwaukee were tied for 28th. On paper the power should favour LA, and it hasn't shown up. I don't think three games overturn a season, so I only move about halfway toward the series numbers, and land the Brewers near 46%.

That's a gap of about 4 points over the 42% the best price implies. It's not huge, and a short series is noisy. But the market is still leaning mostly on the regular-season reputation and home field, and pricing the series form as if it barely happened.

Verdict

Brewers moneyline at 2.38, roughly a 46% chance by my numbers against a 42% price.