The Milan drift has gone further than the news

AC Milan were 1.85 at the best price a day ago and are 2.12 now, a drift of almost 15%, while Salzburg have shortened from 4.25 to 3.52 and the draw has come in from 4.03 to 3.80. Read off the best prices, Milan's implied chance has fallen from about 54% to about 47% in twenty-four hours. The median across eight bookmakers is 2.09, so the board has moved together rather than one firm wandering off on its own.

The market has clearly learned something, and the reason is not hard to find: with a Serie A game three days later, the predicted line-ups expect Milan to rotate for this trip. That is a fair reason for the price to move. The question is whether it is worth seven points of probability. A rotated Milan squad is still a Serie A squad, and their last outing was a 1-1 draw away at Sassuolo rather than anything that suggests a side in trouble. Team news tends to be priced on the story rather than the size of the change, and the story here has flipped from "Milan should win" to "Milan are vulnerable" in a single day. Salzburg have shortened on nothing they did themselves; it is entirely a reaction to the opponent's selection.

I would not have been interested in Milan at 1.85, which is the sort of favourite price I usually argue against. At 2.12 the crowd is charging the rotation twice, once in the selection and again in the drift, and that leaves the away side on the right side of the number for once.

Milan at 2.12 is the price I think the market has pushed too far.