Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction: 3.40 is the side the market is ignoring

Bayern have shortened from 2.23 to 2.14 in a day while Arsenal have drifted from 3.30 to 3.40, and the median now sits at 2.05 / 3.80 / 3.35. Strip the margin out and that is roughly 47% Bayern, 25% draw and 28% Arsenal. In plain terms, the market says the home side wins this about one time in two and the visitors a little more than one time in four.

The question is what the money has learned to justify that move, and I cannot find much. Bayern's last three read 6-1 against Leipzig, then 3-3 away at Viking and 2-2 at Augsburg, so two of their last three ended level and the defence conceded five in those two away trips. Arsenal's last three are 2-1 against Leeds, 3-0 against Lille and 1-0 at Nottingham, three wins and one goal conceded. The public story is simple: the Allianz Arena, a famous name, a big home win at the weekend, and most previews have Bayern as the slight favourite. That is a reasonable starting point, but it is the sort of story that shortens a favourite without new information. The last meeting between these two, last November in London, finished 3-1 to Arsenal, which is worth remembering before treating the home shirt as the whole case.

Arsenal at 28% is a fair number; Arsenal at a price drifting away from them, while their recent results point the other way, is the more interesting one. The best price on the visitors is 3.40, against a median of 3.35, and the draw at 4.00 sits close to its median of 3.80, so the value, if there is any, is on the side the market has just walked away from. I would not call Bayern wrong favourites, only overpriced ones after a day's shortening. Verdict: Arsenal to win at 3.40, because the drift has no visible cause and the recent form runs against it.