Bayern Munich vs Arsenal prediction: the 3-1 in London still hangs over this one

Last November Arsenal did something they had not managed against Bayern in a decade. At the Emirates they went ahead, got pegged back before the break, then put the game away with two goals from players who started on the bench. It finished 3-1 and sent Arsenal to the top of the league phase table. That result is the backdrop for the return trip, and it is a big one for anyone setting an alarm for the 6am AEDT kickoff on Thursday.

The recent run sharpens the story. Arsenal have won their last three: 2-1 against Leeds, 3-0 against Lille in this competition and 1-0 away at Nottingham. Three wins, one goal conceded, and a side that looks comfortable grinding out a result on the road. Bayern are harder to read. They put six past Leipzig at the weekend, but either side of that they were held 3-3 at Viking in this competition and 2-2 at Augsburg. Two draws in three, and five goals let in across those two away games.

So the story says Arsenal are hard to beat right now and Bayern have been leaky away from the weekend blowout. It does not say Arsenal walk into Munich and win easily, and I would not tell it that way.

The price

The market has gone the other way in the last day: Bayern shortened from 2.23 to 2.14, Arsenal drifted from 3.30 to 3.40. Taking Arsenal on the +0.5 line, which covers a draw or an away win, pays 1.84. That works out to about a 54% chance, which matches the story better than the outright price does.

Verdict

Arsenal +0.5 at 1.84, because their form and the last meeting point to a side that does not lose this kind of game often.