Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction: 3-1 home side vs the run game

3 things that decide this one

1. Chicago at Soldier Field. The Bears are 6-2 and 3-1 at home, and they come in on a three-game win streak: 34-17 at Seattle, 30-24 over New England and 31-23 at Atlanta. Their margins in those games were 17, 6 and 8, so two of the three cleared this number. The offense is third in the league in total yards per game.

1. Tampa's ground game. The Bucs lead the NFL in rushing at roughly 168 yards a game, and that is the path to keeping this close: shorten the game, keep Chicago's offense on the sideline. The problem is the record behind it. Tampa is 3-5 even after two straight wins, 16-0 over Atlanta and 43-13 at Carolina.

1. Takeaways. Tampa's defense leads the league with 14 interceptions, which is the one real way a 5.5-point spread gets swallowed. It did not save them in the last loss before the streak, though: 19-26 to Pittsburgh at home.

The number

Chicago -5.5 is the main line, 1.88 on the Bears side and 2.02 on the Bucs. The moneyline barely moved in 24 hours (Bucs best price 3.30 to 3.25, Bears steady at 1.42), so nobody is pushing this toward the dog. In American terms the Bears side is about -114.

Lean

I lean Chicago -5.5. A 3-1 home team with a top-three offense by yardage should handle a run-first opponent with a losing record, and the half point under six helps.