Galatasaray vs Stuttgart prediction: the unbeaten side has drifted to 3.10

Stuttgart have drifted from 3.00 to 3.10 over the last 24 hours while Galatasaray have shortened from 2.33 to 2.24, and the median now sits at 2.18 for the home side and 2.92 for the visitors. Strip the margin out and the market is giving Galatasaray roughly 44% and Stuttgart about 33%. That is a clear preference for the team that sits 23rd in the league phase on three points over the team that sits 6th on seven, with two wins, a draw and two goals conceded in three matches.

The case for the crowd is easy to make. Galatasaray top the Süper Lig on 25 points with four straight league wins, and they went to Lille last time out and won 4-2. Stuttgart are tenth in the Bundesliga on nine points and lost two of their three league games before Saturday. But the one time Galatasaray have played at home in this competition, they led Barcelona 1-0 and lost 4-1, and their manager spoke afterwards about morale dropping as the score ran away. Stuttgart, meanwhile, have just gone to Leverkusen and won 4-2, and in Europe they have drawn with Atlético Madrid and won 3-0 away in Bratislava. Nothing in the last day explains why the price has moved away from them, and a move of a few per cent with no visible reason reads more like money on the bigger name than like information.

Domestic dominance in Turkey is a story the market likes to pay for, and the European evidence points the other way. At 3.10 I would rather be on the side that has not lost in this competition.

Verdict: Stuttgart to win at 3.10.