The only signal in a coin-flip number

Best price 1.96 against a 1.92 median for Detroit, 1.94 against 1.91 for New Jersey. This is as close to a coin flip as the market prints, so the read comes down to which way it has leaned over the day.

Over the last 24 hours the Detroit price came in from 2.00 to 1.96 while the New Jersey price drifted from 1.89 to 1.94. That is a small move, but it is the only signal in this number: money found the home side. When a pick'em moves toward the club playing at home, I take the hint rather than fade it.

The puck line does not change the picture. With both sides inside two points of even on the moneyline, the -1.5 and +1.5 lines are priced for a one-goal game, which is what most of these early-season nights turn into.

Pick: Detroit on the moneyline at 1.96. Nothing fancy, just the side the market tightened on.