Newcastle vs Everton prediction: four days after the cup, a home rematch

Thursday night at Everton was a strange one. Everton won the Carabao Cup tie 3-1, with James Garner, Hayden Hackney and Thierno Barry on the scoresheet and Dan Burn pulling one back late. But Newcastle had 28 shots to Everton's 11, and Matthias Jaissle called his side "naive" afterwards. That reads less like a team that got outplayed and more like one that lost the finishing and made the mistakes at the back.

Now they meet again four days later, at St James' Park, in the league. And the league is where Everton's story turns. After a solid start, they've lost their last two Premier League games 0-2, at Arsenal and at home to Chelsea, without scoring in either. Before that they were held 2-2 at Hull. Newcastle's own league run is patchy, but they come in off a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace, and their home loss to Villa was only 0-1.

There's a twist the other way: the last league meeting at St James' Park finished 2-3 to Everton, in February. So Everton won't be scared of the place. Still, a side that created 28 shots against them on Thursday gets another go at home, against an attack that has gone two league games without a goal. The story points to a Newcastle win.

The price

Newcastle are 2.40 at best, nudged out from 2.37 over the last day, with the median at 2.31. Everton are 3.05 and the draw 3.75. That's not a big favourite for a home side with this matchup, and it's a decent price on that story. Kick-off is 7am AEDT Tuesday for us down here.

Verdict

Newcastle to win, 2.40.