A 37% price on the in-form road dog, and the market is already moving
By the numbers
| Cincinnati | Draw | Columbus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median price | 2.30 | 3.90 | 2.62 |
| Best price | 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.68 |
| Implied (best) | 41.7% | 25.0% | 37.3% |
| 24h move (best) | 2.22 → 2.40 | 4.01 → 4.00 | 2.90 → 2.68 |
Implied probability = 1 ÷ price. Columbus is the dog here, and the money has been coming its way for a day.
Recent results (goals for–against)
- Cincinnati: 2–3 vs New England Revolution, 3–1 at Atlanta Utd
- Columbus: 3–1 vs Charlotte, 2–3 at Orlando City
My estimate vs the market
The table looks like it favours Cincinnati, 9th in the East on 36 points against Columbus 13th on 32. The trend says the opposite. Cincinnati have one win in their last eight, and Columbus have won four of their last five across all competitions. The last meeting in this rivalry went 2–1 to Columbus in July. I weight recent form at roughly half and the season table at half, which puts Columbus near 40% and Cincinnati closer to 36%, with the draw taking the rest. Against a 37.3% best price, that is an edge of about three points, small but in the same direction as the line move.
Verdict
The price has shortened from 2.90 and I still have it a touch high: Columbus to win at 2.68.
Member analyses are the author's own opinion, not betting advice. Odds are as of posting and may have changed.
Comments 0
No comments yet.
Log in to comment.