Crystal Palace vs Newcastle prediction: a rested side against a tired one

Palace have had a rough fortnight, and the calendar is the part of it nobody is talking about. They were beaten 3-2 in Lyon, thumped 5-0 at Brighton, then dragged themselves to Istanbul on Thursday for a 2-2 draw with Besiktas. This one comes three days later. The 5-0 has put the manager under real pressure, and Selhurst Park is going to want a reaction, but wanting one and having the legs for it are two different things.

Newcastle's story isn't pretty either. They've lost three of their last four, including a 4-1 defeat at Coventry and a 1-0 home loss to Aston Villa, and the goals have dried up. They sit 11th on eight points, one point and three places above Palace. The difference is that their last game was Villa on the 17th, so they turn up with eight days between matches and no European travel in the legs.

Last time these two met at Selhurst Park, in April, Palace won 2-1, so this isn't a ground Newcastle should stroll into. The kick-off lands at 1am AEDT Monday for anyone staying up.

The price

Newcastle are the favourites at a median of 2.37, with the best price 2.38, and that number has barely moved in 24 hours (2.42 to 2.38). Palace are out at 3.04, the draw 3.74. So the market already leans the way the story does, just not by much, and I'd be honest that Newcastle's own form is the soft spot here. For a side with a full week off against one on its third game in eight days, an implied 42% feels fair, not generous.

Verdict

Newcastle to win at 2.38, because the fresher side should handle a Palace team running on fumes.