Arsenal vs Everton prediction: the Gunners keep winning narrow

Last time Everton came to the Emirates, in March, they held out until the 89th minute. Arsenal got there in the end, 2-0 with the second arriving deep in stoppage time, but it took 25 shots and most of the afternoon to crack them. That's the shape I keep coming back to for this one.

Look at how Arsenal have been winning lately. A 2-1 over Leeds, a 1-0 at Nottingham, and in between a 3-0 over Lille in Europe. Then on Wednesday night they went to Munich and drew 2-2 with Bayern — a big, draining night, and now a Saturday kick-off (1am Sunday AEDT for us) less than three days later. Plenty of control, not a lot of fireworks in the league.

Everton's story is the other half of it. They lost 0-2 at home to Chelsea last weekend and drew 2-2 at Hull before that. On that evidence they aren't a side that blows games open; they make you work and hang around. Put a tired-legged favourite against a side that keeps games tight and you get a lot of 1-0s and 2-0s.

The price

Under 2.5 goals is 2.06 at best, against 1.89 for the over. That's roughly a 48% shout for under, and the story above has the under landing more often than not. The draw and Everton have both shortened a touch over 24 hours (draw 5.00 to 4.75, Everton 9.04 to 8.42), so I'm not alone in thinking this won't be a stroll. Honest caveat: Arsenal at home can run up a score any week, and one early goal changes everything.

Verdict

Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 suits an Arsenal side grinding out narrow wins three days after Munich.