Aston Villa vs Manchester City prediction: City's games keep running hot

Manchester City haven't played a quiet game in weeks. They beat AEK Athens 5-1 on Tuesday, edged Ipswich 3-2 at the weekend, went down 4-2 in Paris and won 3-0 at Liverpool. That's 20 goals across four matches, and three of the four had five or more. Whatever else is going on at City, their games are not sleepers.

Aston Villa have been on a tear of their own. They drew 2-2 with Brentford, put six past Fenerbahce in the Champions League and then ground out a 1-0 at Newcastle at the weekend. Two of their last three had four or more goals. Villa at home against City is a 10:30pm Saturday kickoff for us in the east, and on recent form it's set up as a game where both sides get chances.

Now the honest bit. Big games between top sides can go cagey, and Villa's latest result was a clean sheet away from home. The story points to goals, the caution points the other way, and the price has to sort that out.

The price

The main line is 3.5 goals, with the over at 2.45 and the under at 1.65. At 2.45 the market is saying four or more goals happens roughly two times in five. With City involved in five-plus goals in three of their last four, I think that's a touch light.

Verdict

Over 3.5 goals at 2.45 — City's matches keep running hot, and the price hasn't caught up.