Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction: a 3.42 drift with no reason

AC Milan were 3.20 this time yesterday and are 3.42 now, while Bournemouth have shortened from 2.25 to 2.15. That is a 7% drift on the away side, and when a price moves that far in a day I want to know what the market has learned. Here, I cannot find anything. Take the margin out of the median prices and Milan come out around 28%; 3.42 implies 29%, so the best price is already slightly kinder than the consensus, and the consensus itself has moved against a side in decent form.

The story doing the rounds is the obvious one. This is Bournemouth's first European campaign after a sixth-place finish last season, the Vitality will be loud, and they arrive on the back of a 2-0 win over Sunderland and a 3-0 against Sturm Graz. All true. It is also the same Bournemouth that lost 5-1 at Chelsea earlier this month, and a 3-0 against Sturm Graz is not the same exam as a Serie A side. Milan's own run is the better one: 3-2 over Atalanta at the weekend, 4-0 in Salzburg in this competition, and a 1-1 at Sassuolo as the only dropped points in that stretch. Nothing in those numbers explains the market walking away from them.

My suspicion is that the drift is home-crowd money on an English side in a glamour tie, rather than information. That is the kind of move I am happy to stand against. The draw at 3.75 is a fair price but not a mispriced one; the away side is where the market has overreacted.

Verdict: AC Milan to win at 3.42, because the price has drifted on sentiment while the form points the other way.