Pass rush vs a sloppy offense: the home dog has the cleaner path

3 things that decide this one

1. Seattle's ball security. The Seahawks have eight giveaways in their last three games and took five sacks in last week's 32-29 home loss to San Francisco. That is the single biggest swing factor on the board, and it plays straight into what Denver does best.

2. Denver's defense against Denver's offense. The Broncos rank seventh in pressure rate and have been opportunistic all season. That defense has had to carry an offense averaging 19.4 points per game, 26th in the league. In last week's 23-17 win at the Chargers, the formula was the same: keep it close, win it late.

3. Seattle's defense is the best unit on the field. Credit where it's due. Seattle allows the fewest yards per game in the league (251.2) and about 150 passing yards a game, with the second-highest pressure rate. Denver will not move the ball easily. That is why this sets up as a low-scoring game, with totals posted around 42 points, where one or two turnovers decide it rather than a shootout.

Both teams are 3-2. Denver is 2-0 at home.

The number

Books have Denver around +2.5 on the spread. On the moneyline the median is 2.20, with the best price at 2.26 (+126), and that best price ticked up from 2.24 over the last 24 hours. Seattle sits at 1.71 to 1.73. A 2.26 price implies about 44%. In a game where the better defense might be on the road, the more turnover-prone offense is also the one wearing the road jersey.

Lean

I lean Denver on the moneyline at 2.26: the game looks decided by turnovers, and the home side is the one less likely to give the ball away.