Toronto Maple Leafs vs Edmonton Oilers prediction: the line barely flinched

Toronto has lost five straight at home and the market has hardly reacted: over 24 hours the best price on Edmonton went from 1.68 to 1.70 and the best on Toronto from 2.29 to 2.35. Both sides got slightly longer at the top, which looks like one book widening rather than money moving, because the medians sit right underneath at 1.66 and 2.28 across eight books. The only score worth noting is the last meeting, a 7-2 Toronto win in Edmonton in October, and the market is clearly not pricing that as the story now. With the consensus steady on the road side and the best number a few cents above it, I take the price that is on offer rather than wait for it to tighten.

Verdict: Edmonton Oilers moneyline at 1.70.