Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction: the price is drifting the wrong way

Chelsea at 2.04 implies a shade under 50%, and the best price has drifted out from 2.00 over the last day while Sunderland's has shortened from 3.90 to 3.80. The draw has come in a touch as well, from 3.88 to 3.82. Nothing in the fixture explains that. When a price on the stronger side lengthens without a visible reason, the move is usually the crowd talking rather than the market learning.

The crowd has a story to tell, admittedly. Chelsea lost 2-0 at home to Tottenham a fortnight ago and went out of the League Cup on penalties at Anfield. But the league table is less forgiving to Sunderland than the price is. They are bottom on five points, with one goal from four home league matches, and they lost 2-0 at home to Dinamo Zagreb in the Europa League on Thursday. Chelsea are fourth on 16 points, beat Manchester United 2-0 in their last match and, with no European football this season, have had eight days off. The side that has been playing every three days is the one the market is warming to, and I cannot find the reason in the results.

A median of 2.00 says the market rates Chelsea about even money once the margin is stripped out. On this evidence that is, if anything, a touch generous to the home side, and the drift to 2.04 makes the away price better rather than worse. I would not touch the draw at 3.82; a bottom side with one home goal is not the profile for it.

Verdict: Chelsea to win at 2.04.