Forty shots, two nil-alls and a home side still waiting for a league goal

The last two league meetings between these two at the City Ground both finished 0-0, and that was despite around 40 shots across them. That is the bit of history I keep coming back to, because twice in a row this ground has slowed Arsenal right down.

Forest have had a rough start. They are 15th with five points from six games, one win, two draws and three losses, and they went down 3-1 at Crystal Palace last time out. The number that jumps out is that they are yet to score a home league goal this season. Arsenal are humming along in second on 15 points, five wins from six, and they have beaten Leeds 2-1 and Lille 3-0 in their last two. So you would expect the visitors to have the ball and Forest to sit deep and make it ugly, which is how you end up with scorelines like the last two here.

For an early Monday start here (2:30am AEDT), this is the one where the story points to a tight, grinding game rather than a goal-fest.

The price: the main line is 2.5 goals, and the under is 1.95 at its best with the over at 1.99. Basically a coin flip, so the market is not reading much into the City Ground history. If the story is right, that is a fair price on it.

Verdict: under 2.5 goals at 1.95.