Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys prediction: lay it vs a stalled offense

Two 2-4 teams, and only one of them has an offense that has looked like an NFL offense for more than a quarter at a time. That is the whole case for laying the points with Dallas on the road.

3 things that decide this one

1. Philly can't move the chains. The Eagles are on a four-game losing streak, averaging 14.5 points a game in that run, and rank 30th in the league at 255.5 yards per game. Last Sunday they managed 222 yards to Carolina's 399 in a 25-14 home loss. Through six games they have been outgained by 650 yards, the worst margin in the league.

1. Dallas still converts. The Cowboys have cooled off (29 points over the last two weeks after averaging 30.5 through Weeks 1-4), and the 23-13 loss at Green Bay was ugly. But they still convert 47.2% of their third downs, fifth in the NFL. Sustained drives are exactly what Philadelphia hasn't been able to match.

1. The Dallas defense is the risk. It is rated 30th and gives up 382.5 yards a game. If anything flips this, it's the Eagles finally finding chunk plays against a soft unit. Nothing in their last four games says they will.

The number

The main line sits at Dallas -4.5, with the best Cowboys price at 1.93 (about -107). The move over the last 24 hours went Dallas's way: the best Eagles moneyline drifted from 2.75 to 2.91 while the Cowboys shortened slightly to 1.50. The market isn't fading the road side here, it's leaning in.

Lean

I lean Cowboys -4.5 at 1.93, because a defense that leaks yards still matters less when the other offense is averaging 14.5 points.