Kansas vs Baylor prediction: Oct 24, Run Defense Versus QB Mobility

Kansas can make its homecoming crowd relevant through Isaiah Marshall's scrambling and Dylan Edwards' cutback speed, but the Jayhawks' early-down inconsistency is a serious obstacle. Marshall has 1,294 passing yards and 372 rushing yards, while Kansas averages roughly 207 rushing yards per game. Those averages deserve context after blowout wins against Long Island and Middle Tennessee; in recent road losses to Utah and Kansas State, Kansas scored 24 in each and struggled to sustain drives. Baylor's 86.7 rushing yards allowed per game and 22 sacks directly challenge the foundation of that offense. That gives the Bears the clearest route to dictate third downs.

Baylor has the more dependable defensive front, although its 17-6 loss to TCU exposed a genuine offensive concern: DJ Lagway completed 22 of 53 throws and took four sacks. The earlier road win over Arizona State showed a higher ceiling, and receiver Gavin Freeman's 49 catches for 555 yards can stress Kansas's coverage if Lagway has time. The counterargument is substantial: Leroy Harris III can pressure Baylor's vulnerable pass protection, and Marshall could break the defensive structure with designed runs or scrambles. Baylor's front-seven edge is enough for a narrow 27-20 projection, not a runaway. An away moneyline near 1.88 implies a 53.2% break-even probability without proving positive expected value. The handicap and total below are arithmetic from the score, not market lines.

Game Projection

Predicted Score: Kansas 20 – Baylor 27
Projected Handicap: Kansas +7.0 / Baylor -7.0
Projected Over/Under Total: 47.0 points