Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers prediction: better defense gets the points

3 things that decide this one

1. Green Bay's defense has turned a corner. The Packers allow 20.8 points a game on the season, 11th in the league, and the last two weeks were tighter still: 13 to Dallas and 7 to Chicago, both wins. A 4-2 team that looked shaky early has now won three straight.

1. Detroit's defense is the soft spot in this game. The Lions give up 29.6 points a game, 30th in the league. They scored 45 at Arizona in their last outing, but a team that needs 30 to feel safe is a tough one to lay more than a field goal with against an opponent that is keeping scores low.

1. This is a division game between teams that know each other. Green Bay won the last meeting 31-24 in Detroit last November, and this is the Lions' first NFC North game of the year. Familiar opponents tend to take away the easy stuff, and that usually keeps the margin tighter than a home favorite would like.

The number

Detroit -3.5 is the main line, and Green Bay +3.5 sits at 1.89 at the best price, roughly -112 in American terms. The 24-hour move has gone slightly the other way: the Packers' best moneyline drifted from 2.73 to 2.78 while Detroit's shortened from 1.62 to 1.60. That's a small move, not a stampede, and the hook is what matters here. Three is the most common margin in the NFL, and +3.5 covers a Lions win by a field goal.

Lean

The matchups point to the visitor: Green Bay's defense is trending up, Detroit's is near the bottom of the league, and the spread asks the Lions to win by four.

I lean Green Bay +3.5 at 1.89, the better defense getting more than a field goal.