Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors prediction: GSW already won in LA

A week ago Golden State walked into the Lakers' building and won 101-89. Preseason, sure, and nobody hands out rings in October, but the Lakers managed only 89 points at home that night. Three days later the Lakers were beaten again on their own floor, 121-106 by Denver. Their preseason ended with two home losses on the bounce.

The Warriors went the other way. After that win in LA they beat Portland 128-118, and they've taken three of their last four. Now the real thing starts, opening night in Los Angeles, 1pm Thursday on the east coast here, and the market has the Lakers as clear favourites. Curry against Doncic is the headline, and on opening night the home crowd tends to carry the price as much as the team.

The story says the Warriors are the sharper side right now. The honest bit is that preseason form only goes so far, and the Lakers may look different once it counts.

The price

The Lakers are 1.47 at best on the moneyline and have shortened from 1.50 in the last day, while the Warriors have drifted from 3.04 to 3.10. The main line is Lakers -6.5, with the Warriors' side at 1.91. Taking the dog with the points means the Warriors can lose by six and still get you home. Given the last time these two met the Warriors won by 12 in the same building, a near seven-point start feels generous.

Verdict

Golden State +6.5 at 1.91 — the story is with the dog, and the points cover the preseason caveat.