FC Cincinnati vs DC United prediction: 4+ goals in 4 of 6 against a 57% price

The main total here is 3.5, which already tells you the market expects goals. The question is whether it expects enough.

By the numbers

Implied probability is just 1 ÷ price, so the two total sides add to a little over 100% because of the margin.

Last results (goals for–against)

• FC Cincinnati: 0–2 vs Columbus Crew, 2–3 vs New England Revolution, 3–1 at Atlanta Utd. Total goals: 2, 5, 4.
• DC United: 1–4 at Orlando City, 2–1 vs New York Red Bulls, 0–4 at Inter Miami. Total goals: 5, 3, 4.

My estimate vs the market

Across those six games the average is 3.8 goals per match, and four of the six went to four or more. Six games is a small sample, so I shrink that 67% hit rate halfway back toward a neutral 50% for a 3.5 line, which gives me roughly 61–62%. Strip the margin out of the over price and the market sits at about 55%. That is a gap of six or seven points in favour of the over. The 1X2 move supports a more open game too: money has come in on DC at 4.33 while the draw drifted out to 4.75, which is not what you see when the market expects a tight, low-event night. DC have conceded four twice in their last three, and Cincinnati have let in five across their last two home games.

Verdict

Over 3.5 at 1.75: both sides' recent scoring agrees, and my 61% estimate beats the market's 55%.