Liverpool vs Villarreal prediction: six goals in Linz, now Anfield gets its turn

Liverpool's European nights this season have been loud. They put six past LASK in Linz last week, 6-3 in a game that never really settled down, and they head into this one with two wins from two in the competition. At the weekend they followed it up with a 2-1 win at Brentford, which is the sort of away result that keeps a side's confidence up. The one sour note was at home, a 3-0 loss to Manchester City earlier in the month, and Anfield will want something to cheer.

Villarreal are a harder side to read. They beat Napoli 3-1 in this competition a week ago, which was a genuinely good night for them, but either side of it they lost 1-0 at Real Madrid and drew 0-0 at home with Elche. That's no goals in their last two league games, and the Napoli win came at home.

Put those two stories together and it's a side that is scoring freely in Europe against a side that has struggled for goals outside one big night. Liverpool just to win is around 1.56, which is about right but doesn't leave much in it. The better question, for anyone up at 6am AEDT on Wednesday, is whether they win comfortably.

The price

Liverpool -1.5, so a win by two or more, is available at 2.50. That's a price for the Linz version of Liverpool turning up rather than the one that lost to City. Villarreal at 6.04 have shortened a touch from 6.50, so the market has given them a bit more respect, but the story doesn't really back that.

Verdict

Liverpool -1.5 at 2.50 — this lot have been running up scores in Europe, and Villarreal's goals have dried up away from that Napoli night.