Alaves vs Dep. A Coruna prediction: low-margin profiles point to a draw

The numbers are closer than the home price suggests

Alavés and Deportivo enter Matchday 13 separated by only two points. Both have scored 15 league goals in 12 matches, while Deportivo have conceded 14 and Alavés 17. That makes the 1X2 market's home lean understandable at Mendizorroza, but not strong enough to erase the draw case.

Recent form also pushes toward a narrow game. Alavés drew 0-0 at Sevilla after the heavy Barcelona defeat, while Deportivo followed a 2-1 win over Osasuna with a 0-0 draw at Espanyol. Neither side has shown a reliable reason to project a wide margin here.

The match can tilt in two directions. Alavés have the home environment and a 3-1-2 home league record, so an early lead would let them protect space and force Deportivo to carry more of the possession burden. Deportivo, however, have already drawn half of their league matches and own the slightly better overall defensive record. If the visitors survive the opening pressure, the game can settle into a low-event second half.

The current best 1X2 prices are 2.19 Alavés, 3.47 draw and 3.70 Deportivo. The main under 2.5 is also shorter than the over, reinforcing a market expectation for limited scoring rather than a high-tempo shootout.

The 90-minute selection is the draw. Alavés' home edge and Deportivo's greater draw frequency balance each other closely enough to make 1-1 the preferred outcome.

Projected score · Alaves 1 VS 1 Dep. A Coruna