Belgium vs Italy prediction: Can the Azzurri reverse the Rome result?

Italy have a reason to believe the Brussels rematch could go differently. Belgium won 2-0 in Rome at the start of this Nations League group, but the Azzurri recovered to collect seven points from four matches, one more than Belgium. Sunday's game at King Baudouin Stadium puts Italy's recent attacking recovery against a Belgium side that has already shown it can keep them scoreless.

One tactical question

Can Italy avoid the transition problems that defined the September defeat? Italy have scored eight times in four Group A1 matches, including four away to Türkiye and a goal in the 1-1 draw in France. Belgium have scored six and conceded five, but their defensive record swings sharply: clean sheets against Italy and Türkiye contrast with four goals conceded away to France.

Italy's November squad includes familiar Serie A defensive options such as Alessandro Bastoni and Giorgio Scalvini, as well as first call-ups intended to broaden the bench. These names are selection options, not confirmed starters. Belgium's ability to win the first head-to-head remains the strongest argument for another home result.

A tight game gives both teams a plausible path:

• Belgium path: disrupt Italy's first pass out of defence and turn turnovers into early chances.
• Italy path: maintain controlled possession through midfield, avoid risky defensive gaps and attack behind advancing wide players.

Belgium are the market favourites at home, so an Italian victory would be the less conventional call. Still, Italy's improvement after the opening defeat and stronger four-match scoring total make Italy to win in regular time a viable upset selection, provided the visitors manage the opening pressure.

Projected score · Belgium 1 VS 2 Italy