64% at home vs a 56% price

By the numbers

Recent results in our database

• Rays: L 3-7 vs Guardians (ALCS Game 1)
• Guardians: W 7-3 at Rays, W 2-0 vs White Sox, W 9-5 at White Sox

Season numbers (regular season): Rays 98-64, 55-26 at home, 736 runs scored, team ERA 3.70. Guardians 85-77, 44-37 on the road, 678 scored and 667 allowed, which is an 82-80 team by run differential.

My estimate vs the market

I only need two inputs here: how often the Rays win at home (.679) and how often the Guardians win on the road (.543). Put those through the usual log5 formula and the home side comes out at about 64%. The best price of 1.78 says 56%, so the gap is roughly eight points in favour of Tampa Bay. The Guardians have a real case after Game 1 and three straight wins, but their run differential says they are an average team that has been winning close games, and the Rays' home record is the strongest number on this page.

One honest caveat: one playoff game is one data point, and the market already moved the Rays off the shorter price they would have had before Monday.

Verdict: Rays moneyline at 1.78. My number is 64%, the price is 56%, and that is the edge I am paid to take.