Toronto FC vs DC United prediction: October 29, Away Value at 3.38

Baseline Strength and Recency

Toronto FC carry 40.08 npxG and 49.89 xGA through 31 matches, compared with 41.45 npxG and 54.27 xGA for DC United. I separate the latest three matches from each season total and rebuild the rates with a fixed 10-match exponential half-life, so recent data are not counted twice. The time-weighted attack rates settle near 1.35 npxG for Toronto and 1.30 for DC, while the defensive rates are about 1.63 and 1.72 xGA. Home and away xG splits then leave Toronto only a modest underlying edge, with central scoring rates near 1.61 to 1.36.

Availability Without Forced Adjustments

There is no confirmed starting XI. The latest MLS status report, which predates this fixture, lists four Toronto players as OUT and three DC players as OUT with one additional DC player questionable. Because those statuses can change before October 28 locally and verified replacement-impact values are not available, I make no numerical player adjustment. That keeps the availability layer as uncertainty rather than an invented boost or penalty.

Probability, Lines and Price

A 300,000-run correlated score simulation gives 44.3% Toronto FC, 21.0% draw and 34.7% DC United. The correlation estimate comes from a small recent score sample, so an independent-Poisson sensitivity check is important; it gives 43.2% / 24.3% / 32.5%, leaving the away side above the market in both cases. These probabilities are uncalibrated because no paired historical forecast-validation set is available. The current 1X2 prices of 2.10 / 3.90 / 3.38 normalize to roughly 46.3% / 24.9% / 28.8%, so DC United at 3.38 is the value selection, with raw model EV of roughly +10% to +17% across the correlation sensitivity. DC +0.5 at 1.83 and Under 3.5 at 1.61 show only small edges and are passes. The most likely single score is 1-1, but a representative selected-side outcome is 1-2.

Toronto FC 1 - 2 DC United / Major League Soccer