Liverpool vs Brighton prediction: the side third in the table has drifted

Brighton have drifted from 3.25 to 3.40 over the last day, and the best price now sits about 5% above the median of 3.23. At 3.40 the market is giving them roughly a 29% chance at Anfield; at the median it is closer to 31%. Liverpool have moved the other way, shortening slightly from 2.19 to 2.15. Something has nudged the crowd towards the home side, and it is worth asking what.

It is hard to find it in the results. Brighton arrive third on 16 points with the best goal difference in the division, four straight league wins and a 5-0 against Crystal Palace last weekend. Liverpool are fifth on 12, and the recent run is more uneven than the badge suggests: a 3-0 home defeat to Manchester City, then wins at Brentford (2-1) and over Villarreal (4-3) in which they conceded freely. A side that let in three at home in Europe on Tuesday is being priced as if Anfield settles the matter. The usual story for this sort of fixture is the big club at home, and the price has drifted with that story rather than with anything new. Brighton's Thursday trip to Jablonec ended 0-0, which is the only obvious tiredness argument, and it was a Conference League game rather than a slog. The draw, at 4.04 against a median of 3.90, is close but does not quite clear the gap I want for it.

So I would take the drift as an opinion rather than information. The market has shortened the name and pushed out the form side, and at 3.40 the visitors are the better number of the three on offer, even allowing for the ground.

Verdict: Brighton to win at 3.40, the price has moved away from the team in the better form.