Sunderland vs Leeds prediction: Europe's darlings, the league's bottom side

Sunderland are living two lives this season. In the Europa League they are unbeaten, seven points from three games, and they went to Poland on Thursday and came home with a 1-1 at Lech Poznan. In the Premier League it's a different story altogether: they sit bottom after seven games, with only six goals scored, and their last two league outings were both 2-0 defeats, at home to Brighton and away at Bournemouth.

Leeds have gone the other way. Seven league games, just the one loss, and four draws in there, which tells you they are hard to put away even when they are not at their best. The 1-1 against Manchester Utd last weekend fits that pattern, and the 2-1 defeat at Arsenal is about as respectable as a loss gets.

So the story is a tired home side coming off a Thursday night in Poznan, against a visitor with no midweek fixture that simply does not lose often. Sunderland have shown they can lift for European nights; the league has been another matter, and goals have been the problem.

The price

Leeds are 2.48 at the best price against a 2.40 median, and the away side has shortened from 2.57 over the past 24 hours, so the market has started telling the same story. The draw at 3.30 is short for a reason, with the total of 2.5 leaning to the under. Leeds are favourites, but only just, and at that margin the sturdier side is the one I want. Kick-off is 3:30am Monday AEDT, so this one is for the early risers.

Verdict

Leeds to win at 2.48, the sturdier side against a home team with its mind half on Europe.