Crystal Palace vs Newcastle prediction: 3.02 is priced off one bad afternoon

A median of 2.88 on the home side gives Crystal Palace roughly a 35% chance, and once the bookmakers' margin is stripped out it is nearer 33%. Newcastle sit at 2.38 in the middle of the board, about 40% after the same adjustment, with the draw taking what is left. The best home price, 3.02, is close to 5% above that median, and nothing on the board has moved in the last 24 hours. The market made up its mind some days ago and has not revisited it.

What it made up its mind about is fairly obvious. Palace were beaten 0-5 at Brighton on the 18th, three days after losing 2-3 in Lyon, and a scoreline like that sticks in the memory far longer than it deserves to. It is the sort of result that shortens the opponent without anyone looking closely at the opponent. Newcastle's own last two league outings were a 0-1 home defeat to Aston Villa and a 1-4 loss at Coventry. That is not the form of a side that ought to be the favourite to travel to Selhurst Park, and at 2.38 they are being priced closer to a visitor in good order than one that has conceded five in two league games. The fair objection is the calendar: Palace play in Istanbul on Thursday night, and a short turnaround is a genuine cost. But the Istanbul trip has been on the calendar for weeks and Newcastle's price has not shortened in the last day, so the congestion looks to be in the numbers rather than a reason to push them further.

Both of these sides arrive in poor shape, and only one of them is being charged for it. The market has taken one heavy afternoon in Brighton and treated it as a verdict on Palace's whole season, while Newcastle's two defeats have barely registered. I would make this much closer to a coin toss between the two sides, which leaves the home price as the one that is too long.

Verdict: Crystal Palace to win at 3.02, the side the price has been too quick to write off.