Celtic vs Celta Vigo prediction: 2.74 asks too little of Celtic Park

At a median of 2.70 for the home side and 2.55 for the visitors, the market is making Celta Vigo a narrow favourite at Celtic Park: roughly 37% for Celtic, 39% for Celta and the rest on the draw once the margin is stripped out. The best home price, 2.74, sits barely above the median, and nothing has moved in the last 24 hours. This is a settled opinion rather than a reaction to news, which is exactly the kind worth questioning.

The case for Celta is easy to make and has clearly been made. Celtic went to Benfica last week and lost 1-4, and the general view of Scottish clubs against mid-ranking La Liga sides is not flattering. Celta beat Alaves 2-1 at the weekend and lost only 1-2 at home to Juventus last week. All true. But the price treats Celtic as an away team in their own stadium. They arrive on the back of a 7-1 win over Hearts that put them four points clear at the top, and Celtic Park on a European night is a different proposition from a trip to Lisbon. Celta's last away fixture was a goalless draw at Elche. That is a solid side, not one that should be favourite to win in Glasgow.

I would price Celtic closer to 2.40 than 2.70. The draw at 3.50 is fair but uninspiring, and the shortened view of Celta looks like the Benfica scoreline being carried forward rather than anything specific to this fixture.

Verdict: Celtic to win at 2.74, a home side the market has priced as the outsider.