53% vs a 50% price on the under

The total of 6.5 is priced almost dead even, so the question is simple: is this ALCS game more likely than not to finish with six runs or fewer?

By the numbers

(Implied probability = 1 ÷ price.) Only four books are pricing this one, so the board is thin.

Recent five (Cleveland, runs for–against)

• 10-15 vs Tampa Bay: 3–2 (5 total)
• 10-14 at Tampa Bay: 1–3 (4)
• 10-13 at Tampa Bay: 7–3 (10)
• 10-11 vs Chicago White Sox: 2–0 (2)
• 10-09 at Chicago White Sox: 9–5 (14)

My estimate vs the market

The regular season argues for runs: Tampa Bay scored about 4.54 a game and allowed 4.01, Cleveland scored 4.19 and allowed 4.12, which blends to roughly 8.4 runs. October has been a different sport. Two of the three games in this series finished with five runs or fewer, and Cleveland came into the postseason with the fewest runs and lowest OPS of any playoff team. I weight the series and the postseason sample more heavily than the 162-game average, which lands me at about 53% for six runs or fewer. Against a 50% price that is a small edge, not a big one.

Verdict: under 6.5 at 2.00.