Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens prediction: two 3-point wins and a 3.5 spread

3 things that decide this one

1. Buffalo's last two wins were both by three. The Bills are 5-1, but the two most recent wins on our board were 33-30 at the Raiders and 37-34 at the Rams. That is a team winning games, not pulling away in them, and a hook on 3.5 matters a lot when the margin keeps landing on exactly three.

1. Buffalo's defense has been giving up points. Thirty and thirty-four allowed in those two games. Baltimore's offense has stalled, with 10 points at Cleveland and 13 at home against Cincinnati, so this is the matchup to watch: if the Ravens can't score 20 here, they lose and probably don't cover. But a defense that has allowed 30-plus in back-to-back games is not one I trust to shut a team out.

1. Baltimore at 4-3 is better than the last two weeks. The Ravens won 30-23 in Atlanta before the two losses, and I'm weighting a 4-3 season over two bad weeks when the price is more than a field goal.

The number

Most books sit on Bills -3.5, with the Ravens side best at 1.85 and the Bills side up to 2.05, so the books are charging more for the Ravens side at this number. The moneyline barely moved in the last 24 hours (Bills 1.60 to 1.57, Ravens 2.54 to 2.52). 1.85 is about -118 in American odds, and the Ravens plus the hook is the side the matchups point to.

Lean

Ravens +3.5 at 1.85.