Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears prediction: Bears offense meets Seattle's D

Chicago comes in 5-2, Seattle 4-3, and this one decides a lot about the NFC playoff picture. Here's how I see it.

3 things that decide this one

1. Seattle's defense is playing at a high level. The Seahawks just held Kansas City to 3 points in a 20-3 win. Over their last three games they've allowed 3, 17 and 32, and the 32 came in a shootout loss to San Francisco. At home against a top offense, this unit has been the reason Seattle stays in games.

1. The Bears' offense swings with the opponent. Chicago put up 30 on New England and 31 in Atlanta, with Caleb Williams throwing for 308 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots. But the one road game against a strong defense in that stretch was a 7-31 loss at Green Bay. Seattle on a Monday night looks more like Green Bay than Atlanta.

1. Seattle's own offense isn't running up scores. The Seahawks scored 20, 14 and 29 in their last three. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had nine catches for 150 yards against the Chiefs, but even with that, Seattle only reached 20. Two of their last three games stayed in the 20s or low 30s combined.

The number

Most books sit at 46.5 with both sides at -108 (1.93), and the total hasn't moved in the last 24 hours. The spread is Seattle -3.5, with the Bears getting 1.82 at best.

Lean

I lean under 46.5 at 1.93. The number says points, but the matchup says Seattle's defense and a modest Seattle offense keep this in the low 40s.