55% for over 3.5, but Orlando games average more than four goals

By the numbers

Implied probability = 1 ÷ price, so 1.83 means the market thinks over 3.5 lands about 55% of the time. The 1X2 side is the one that moved: Orlando's best price shortened from 1.76 to 1.68.

Recent results (goals for–against)

• Orlando: 3–3 at Toronto FC, 3–2 vs Columbus Crew
• DC United: 2–1 vs New York Red Bulls, 0–4 at Inter Miami

That is 11 goals in Orlando's last two and 7 in DC's last two.

My estimate vs the market

The season sample is the stronger number. Through 28 games Orlando had scored 51 and conceded 66, which is 117 goals, or about 4.2 per game in matches involving them. A goal difference of −15 tells you the defence is the leaky part. On the other side, Orlando have scored in each of their last 11 meetings with DC. If I take the season rate at face value, a game line of 3.5 sits below the average, and I put over 3.5 closer to 60% than 55%. That is a gap of roughly five points over the 54.6% price.

Verdict

The season scoring rate says this line is set too low: over 3.5 goals at 1.83.