Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati prediction: my 50% under vs a 43% price

The main total sits at 3.5 goals, and the over is the short side. That tells you the market is pricing this off the season-long numbers, which are wild. The last few weeks look a lot calmer.

By the numbers

(Implied probability = 1 ÷ price. The two sides add up to more than one because of the books' margin.)

Recent results (goals in the match)

• Inter Miami: 0-2 at NY Red Bulls (2), 3-1 at Atlanta (4), 2-0 vs NYCFC (2), 4-0 vs DC United (4) → average 3.0
• FC Cincinnati: 2-0 at DC United (2), 2-1 vs DC United (3), 0-2 vs Columbus (2), 2-3 vs New England (5), 3-1 at Atlanta (4) → average 3.2

Five of those nine games stayed at three goals or fewer.

My estimate vs the market

Through mid-October, Miami had scored 73 and conceded 51 in 30 league games, and Cincinnati had scored 60 and conceded 68 in 28. That is roughly 4.1 and 4.6 goals per match, and on those numbers alone a simple Poisson model puts the over near 62%, right where the price is. The recent sample says something different: an average near 3.1 goals, which puts the over closer to 38%. I weight the two halves equally, because a full season is the bigger sample but the recent games tell you how both sides are playing right now. That gives about 50% for the under against a 43% price, so the gap is around seven points.

The risk is obvious: these are two teams that have conceded a lot all year, and one early goal can flip the whole script.

Verdict: the season numbers are already in the 3.5 line, so I take the under 3.5 at 2.32.