Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors prediction: an 0-3 start meets Denver

Golden State are 0-3. They opened with a 127-105 hiding from the Lakers, dropped a 111-108 home game to Memphis, then lost 131-122 at Phoenix. Three games, three losses, and the defence is the problem: they've given up an average of 123 a night. Now they go to altitude.

Denver haven't been perfect either. They got beaten 96-84 at Oklahoma City, then needed overtime to get past New Orleans 141-135 at home. But the Nuggets are 1-1 and home, and the Warriors are on the road at the end of a rough week.

The history fits the same picture. Last season these two split the series 2-2, and the home side won every game. Denver's two at Ball Arena were not close: 129-104 in November and 116-93 in March, so 25 and 23 points. Golden State's wins both came in San Francisco, one of them in overtime.

The price

The main line is Denver -7.5, and the best price on it is 1.90. The moneyline (1.35 median) is too short to bother with. So the question is just this: does a home side that won its last two meetings here by 23-plus cover against a team that hasn't stopped anyone yet? On last season's form at this venue, a seven-and-a-half point margin isn't asking for much. The worry is that it's early, and three games is a small sample for any team. Tip-off is 1pm AEDT on Tuesday.

Verdict: I'm with the story here, so I take Denver -7.5 at 1.90.