Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction: 55% on the over vs a 51% price

By the numbers

Implied probability = 1 ÷ price. In the last 24 hours the Brewers' best moneyline shortened from 1.65 to 1.57 and the Rays drifted from 2.43 to 2.63, but the total stayed parked at 6.5 with both sides near even money.

Recent five

• Brewers: 6-4, 6-2, 7-4, 2-1, 3-1. That's 24 scored, 12 allowed, 7.2 total runs a game, over 6.5 in three of five.
• Rays: 7-3, 3-1, 7-3, 2-3, 3-1. That's 22 scored, 11 allowed, 6.6 total runs a game, over 6.5 in two of five.

Ten postseason games, 6.9 runs on average, and an exact 5-5 split around this line. Postseason baseball runs low, and the number already knows it.

My estimate vs the market

The regular season pulls the other way. Milwaukee scored 832 runs, second in MLB, about 5.1 a game; Tampa Bay scored 736, about 4.5 a game. The two offenses also tied for the best batting average in baseball at .258. October shrinks those numbers, but not to zero: the recent ten-game average is still above 6.5, and both lineups showed they can put up seven in a game this month. I weight the recent ten at roughly two-thirds and the season scoring at one-third, which lands me around 55% for the over. The market prices it at 51.3%, so the gap is close to four points. That's a modest edge, not a big one.

Verdict

The over 6.5 at 1.95 is where my numbers sit a little ahead of the price.