3.00 on the home side is a price built on the badge

Burnley at 3.00 with Betano, against a median of 2.90, implies a 33 percent chance of a home win, while Wolves at a best of 2.40 on Betfair Exchange sit at roughly 42 percent and the draw at 3.60 covers the rest. Over 24 hours the home price has not moved at all and Wolves have drifted a touch from 2.37 to 2.40 across nine books. So the market has had a week to think about this one and has settled on the away side as a clear favourite.

The case for the crowd is simple: Burnley are second from bottom with one win in ten and Wolves are tenth. The case against it is what the two sides have actually produced lately. Wolves have taken 52 shots in their last five matches and scored twice, a conversion rate under 4 percent, and their midweek was a 3-1 home defeat to Bolton in which they conceded twice in the final 20 minutes, following a 0-1 at Middlesbrough. Burnley, for their part, put four past Watford away and twice led Charlton on Tuesday before a 96th-minute equaliser made it 2-2. Neither side can close a game, but only one of them is priced as if it can, and the price on Wolves has not shortened on anything they have done in October.

That leaves the home side as the one number here that still looks mispriced. A team that has stopped scoring does not deserve to be a 42 percent favourite away from home on the strength of its name and a tenth-place table position, and Burnley's recent attacking output is the better of the two. 3.00 on the home side reads as underpriced; at 2.80 it would not.