Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction: 1.68 asks too much of a London derby

A median of 1.68 on Chelsea is a 59% price before the margin comes out, and roughly 57% once it does. Strip the draw and Tottenham out of the same board and you are left with about 43% for "Spurs do not lose" — the best price for exactly that, Tottenham +0.5, is 2.28. None of the three 1X2 prices has moved an inch in 24 hours, which tells you the market has not learned anything new since it opened. It has simply settled where the public wanted it.

And the public has an easy story to buy. Chelsea come in off a 5-1 against Bournemouth and a 2-0 win at Everton, and the talk around Spurs this autumn has been about a slow start. That is precisely the sort of narrative that shortens a favourite without anyone checking the second half of the picture. Tottenham have not lost in their last two: a 1-1 at Old Trafford and a 3-1 over Coventry. That is not a side in free fall, and a London derby is a poor place to assume a procession. There is also a small tell on the Chelsea side: the best home price is 1.76 against a 1.68 median, a gap of almost 5%. At least one book is perfectly happy to lay Chelsea at a number nobody else will touch, which is not what confidence looks like.

So I would rather take the side of the line the crowd is ignoring. The draw on its own at 4.41 is a touch short for my liking, but folding it into Tottenham +0.5 at 2.28 gets paid for both outcomes the market seems to be underrating. Chelsea may well win, and the price says they win more often than not; I simply think "more often than not" is closer to 52% than 57%.

Verdict: Tottenham +0.5 at 2.28 is the better side of a favourite priced on its last two results.